2024 Rider Tiers # 1: Who Are the Prime Grand Tour Contenders Heading Into the New Season?

2024 Rider Tiers Half 1: Who’re the highest Grand Tour contenders heading into the upcoming season? Spencer Martin breaks down the place every main Grand Tour contender stands as we strategy the 2024 season.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Enroll right here for full entry. –

Jumbo-Visma ‘in all probability’ wont will all three GT’s

With the beginning of the 2024 skilled biking season rapidly approaching (though it isn’t clear the place we can watch that season in the mean time), I believed it will be instructive (in addition to simply enjoyable) to revisit who the game’s elite riders are at every main self-discipline (grand excursions, one-classics & stage profitable) heading into 2024 to offer us a clearer view of what to anticipate when these main occasions roll round.

To kick issues off, I’m separating the highest grand tour contenders into 5 tiers. To delineate them into tiers, I’m considering 1) their outcomes over the previous 4 seasons, with outcomes generated just lately given extra emphasis, 2) their age*, and, most significantly, 3) their probability to generate outcomes (wins) within the 2024 season.

*rider age is taken from the beginning of 2024 biking season

Why This Is Useful

One main advantage of this train is the power to objectively reduce by means of the noise and see who the perfect riders in every self-discipline are. That is particularly vital within the trendy panorama since there may be an odd inversion the place the much less a rider produces, the extra media protection they obtain. This inversion can create mismatched expectations amongst followers, and even groups/riders themselves, previous to grand excursions when 1/4th of the sector is being touted as potential winners and groups are devoting treasured assets to GC campaigns of riders with no actual probability of contending for podium spots.

Who shall be on the rostrum in Good (no Paris in 2024)

The Standards

Whereas there’s a practically countless array of rising grand tour skills, like Cian Uijtdebroeks, who could go on to implausible careers as grand tour winners, to qualify for the highest 4 tiers, a rider should have both gained a grand tour prior to now 4 seasons or landed within the prime 5 on the Tour de France throughout the previous two years.

• As a common rule, these tiers are supposed to be goal rankings that take a rider’s most up-to-date GC outcomes under consideration, however there are a couple of situations the place riders with skinny GC outcomes, like Remco Evenepoel, are elevated and riders that will technically qualify for a tier, like Egan Bernal, are omitted on account of current outcomes failing to indicate the required degree to compete with the others.
• Younger skills with a excessive ceiling who could have the power to make an enormous step up from 2023 to 2024 however don’t have the outcomes to land inside the highest 4 shall be relegated to the fifth tier.
• Though these riders rightfully create a whole lot of pleasure and get vital consideration, this theoretical upside shouldn’t be accounted for in these tiers since most individuals vastly overestimate how shut they’re to truly changing their expertise into a significant grand tour win.
• After all, there may be at all times an opportunity certainly one of them replicates Remco Evenepoel’s 2022 season, the place he got here in with a historical past of sturdy however considerably scattered, big-race outcomes and gained a one-day Monument, grand tour and world highway race championship title, however, as a result of unprecedented nature of the season, that is extremely unlikely.

Beneath, every rider is listed of their BTP designated tier together with the age and group they are going to be racing at in 2024:

The Tiers

Tier 1

Reserved for riders who’ve confirmed a capability to win a grand tour towards the game’s finest competitors in recent times and have the power to take action in 2024. That is clearly an extremely choose and elite group.

Pogačar

Tadej Pogačar – (25) – UAE

• 2023: 2nd total@TDF
• 7xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
• 2022: 2nd total@TdF
• 5xTdF stage podium (3xTdF stage win)
• 2021: 1st total@TdF
• 3xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
• 2020: 1st total@TdF
• 4xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
• GC Totals: 2xTdF total win, 2xTdF runner-up
• Stage Totals: 9xGT complete stage wins, 19xGT complete stage podiums

Vingegaard

Jonas Vingegaard – (27) – Jumbo

• 2023: 1st total@TdF, 2nd total@Vuelta
• 4xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage wins)
• 2022: 1st total@TdF
• 4xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage wins)
• 2021: 2nd total@TdF
• 2020: N/A
• N/A
• GC Totals: 2xTdF total win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up
• Stage Totals: 3xGT complete stage wins, 10xGT complete stage podiums

The highest two

Tier 2

Riders who shall be thought-about critical potential winners of the Tour de France in 2024 whereas additionally having an excellent probability to complete on the general podium. As well as, they are going to be thought-about favorites to win the remainder of the game’s grand excursions if they’re current.

Roglič

Primož Roglič – (34) – Bora

• 2023: 1st total@Giro, third total@Vuelta
• 2xGiro stage podium (1xGiro stage win), 4xVuelta stage podium (2xVuelta stage win)
• 2022: N/A
• 2xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win), 1xTdF stage podium
• 2021: 1st total@Vuelta
• 6xVuelta stage podium (2xVuelta stage win), 2xTdF stage podium
• 2020: 2nd total@TdF, 1st total@Vuelta
• 6xVuelta stage podium (3xVuelta stage win), 4xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
• GC Totals: 2xVuelta total win, 1xGiro total win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta podium
• Stage Totals: 10xGT complete stage wins, 27xGT complete stage podiums

Evenepoel

Remco Evenepoel – (24) – QuickStep

• 2023: N/A
• 2xGiro stage podium (2xGiro stage wins), 6xVuelta stage podium (3xVuelta stage wins)
• 2022: 1st total@Vuelta
• 3xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win)
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• N/A
• GC Totals: 1xVuelta total win
• Stage Totals: 6xGT complete stage win, 11xGT complete stage podiums

The subsequent two

Tier 3

Riders who’re capable of win, however not be the outright favourite, on the sport’s two lesser grand excursions (Giro & Vuelta), and are additionally respectable contenders to compete for podium spots on the Tour de France in 2024.

Adam Yates

Adam Yates – (31) – UAE

• 2023: third total@TdF
• 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
• 2022: ninth total@TdF
• 2021: 4th total@Vuelta
• 2020: ninth total@TdF
• 1xTdF stage podium
• GC Totals: 1xTdF total podium
• Stage Totals: 1xTdF stage win, 3xGT complete stage podiums

Thomas

Geraint Thomas – (38) – Ineos

• 2023: 2nd total@Giro
• 2022: third total@TdF
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: N/A
• N/A
• GC Totals: 2xTdF podium, 1xGiro podium
• Stage Totals: 4xGT complete stage podium

Kuss

Sepp Kuss – (29) – Jumbo

• 2023: 1st total@Vuelta
• 3xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win)
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: N/A
• 1xTdF stage win, 1xVuelta stage podium
• 2020: N/A
• N/A
• GC Totals: 1xVuelta total win
• Stage Totals: 1xTdF stage win, 1xVuelta stage win, 5xGT complete stage podiums

Kuss, Yates and Thomas – Tier 3

Tier 4

These riders have an outdoor probability of profitable and a greater probability at podium finishes on the Giro and Vuelta in 2024. And if a couple of issues break their method, they’ve an outdoor shot of ending on the rostrum on the Tour de France.

Geoghegan Hart

Tao Geoghegan Hart – (28) – Lidl-Trek

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: 1st total@Giro
• 3xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage wins)
• GC Totals: 1xGiro total win
• Stage Totals: 2xGiro stage wins, 4xGT complete stage podiums

Hindley

Jai Hindley – (27) – Bora

• 2023: seventh total@TdF
• 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
• 2022: 1st total@Giro
• 3xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: 2nd total@Giro
• 3xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
• GC Totals: 1xGiro total win, 1xGiro runner-up
• Stage Totals: 3xGT complete stage wins, 7xGT complete stage podiums

Simon Yates

Simon Yates (31) – Jayco

• 2023: 4th total@TdF
• 2022: N/A
• 2xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage win)
• 2021: third total@Giro
• 2xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
• 2020: N/A
• N/A
• GC Totals: 1xTdF total prime 5, 1xGiro podium
• Stage Totals: 3xGiro stage wins, 4xGT complete stage podiums

Is it time for the younger guys?

Tier 5:

The game’s elite younger(ish) grand tour GC expertise. Fully unproven as winners, however all have a powerful assortment of prime tens and podiums up to now and may have nice possibilities to complete on the rostrum, and maybe even win, the 2024 Giro and/or Vuelta.

João Almeida – UAE- (25) – 4th@Giro 2020, sixth@Giro 2021, fifth@Vuelta 2022, third@Giro 2023
Juan Ayuso – UAE- (21) – third@Vuelta 2022, 4th@Vuelta 2023
Carlos Rodriguez – Ineos (23) – seventh@Vuelta 2022, fifth@TdF 2023
Thymen Arensman – Ineos (23) – sixth@Vuelta 2022, sixth@Giro 2023
Cian Uijtdebroeks – Bora – (21) – eighth@Vuelta 2023

Uijtdebroeks

Prime Riders Who Missed Out

Illustrating simply how troublesome it’s to remain within the prime tiers of grand tour GC rivalry, under are three extraordinarily high-quality riders whose current Palmeres didn’t enable them to qualify for the tiers above, plus Egan Bernal, who, regardless of technically qualifying on account of his 2021 Giro d’Italia victory, simply merely hasn’t proven the requisite potential to compete with the brand new group of GC stars after his low season crash between the 2021 and the 2022 seasons.

• Specifically, Bernal’s struggles to stick with the lead breakaway group on comparatively delicate climbs on Stage 18 of the 2023 Vuelta have been an indicator that he might seemingly battle to get again to his former climbing degree.

Mas

Enric Mas – (28) – Movistar

• 2023: sixth@Vuelta
• 2022: 2nd@Vuelta
• 2021: 2nd@Vuelta
• 2020: fifth@Vuelta
• Podium Totals: 2xVuelta podium

Carapaz

Richard Carapaz – (30) – EF

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: 2nd@Giro
• 2021: third@TdF
• 2020: 2nd@Vuelta
• Podium Totals: 1xGiro runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up, 1xTdF podium

Landa

Mikel Landa – (34) – QuickStep

• 2023: fifth@Vuelta
• 2022: third@Giro
• 2021: N/A
• 2020: 4th@TdF
• Podium Totals: 1xGiro total podium

Bernal

Egan Bernal – (27) – Ineos

• 2023: N/A
• 2022: N/A
• 2021: 1st total@Giro
• 2020: N/A

UAE prime group

Key Takeaways:

1) The highest Grand Tour GC expertise is concentrated inside a couple of prime groups

• Tier breakdown by group:
  UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
  Jumbo-Visma: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3
  Bora: 1xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
  Ineos: 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
  Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 2
  Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 4
  Jayco-Alula: 1xTier 4
• The main takeaway from this checklist is simply how concentrated grand tour success is inside a couple of groups and even only a handful of riders inside these choose groups.
• The truth is, regardless of there being 22 groups that persistently compete within the top-level races (18 WorldTour groups plus 4 second-division groups), solely seven have grand tour GC contenders that even qualify for the highest 5 tiers of this train.
• Additional underlining this inequality, no group has a rider within the up-and-coming fifth tier that doesn’t even have a rider within the 4 tiers above.
• Three riders, Vingegaard, Pogačar, and Roglič, have gained seven out of the twelve grand excursions (58%) because the begin of the 2020 season, which exhibits simply how sturdy the delineation is between the highest tier and the remainder of the sector.

Subsequent up Jumbo-Visma

2) Jumbo has taken a step again, whereas Bora is on the rise heading into the 2024 season

• Jumbo and UAE are nonetheless the one two groups with Tier 1 riders, however their benefit over the remainder of the sector has considerably decreased since final 12 months on account of Bora taking an enormous step up by buying Primož Roglič’s contract from Jumbo, and really having extra tiered riders than Jumbo (3 vs 2).
• Apparently, UAE has additionally overtaken Jumbo each by way of doubling the quantity of complete tiered riders (4 vs 2) whereas additionally matching their variety of Tier 1 riders.
• Beneath the highest two, Ineos has three drained riders, however they lack a single famous person able to coming into a grand tour as an outright favourite in 2024.
• Apparently, the veteran Geraint Thomas has really elevated his tier from final 12 months by going from 4 to three, however the lack of Tao Geoghegan Hart, who seemed unbelievable earlier than crashing out of the 2023 Giro, has been an enormous loss for Ineos.

Thomas nonetheless has it

3) These tiers additionally converse to the issue of not solely profitable a grand tour, however sustaining that success.

• Whereas riders like Jai Hindley and Remco Evenepoel have gained grand excursions in recent times, neither have, not less than up to now, been capable of replicate that success.
• Additionally, pretty current grand tour winners like Richard Carapaz and Egan Bernal have fallen out of the tiers utterly, one by means of not having the current palmers to qualify and the opposite on account of failing to indicate the standard essential to problem for grand tour victories towards trendy skills.

Bernal: Tour winner to domestique?

4) Constant rider development and enchancment is underrated.

• Younger riders like Juan Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez, and Cian Uijtdebroeks are extraordinarily extremely touted in the mean time, however it is very important level out that Enric Mas is producing practically the identical outcomes however with out the fanfare and pleasure on account of being just some years older.
• It would sound absurd contemplating these riders’ younger ages, however, as quickly as a rider begins producing GC outcomes, it is necessary for them to repeatedly enhance to turn out to be a prime star and keep away from falling into the Mas/Landa zone of having the ability to end within the prime 5 persistently, however fail to noticeably problem for total victory.

Landa and Mas – A GT win too far

5) The highest GC contenders who additionally dominate the stage podium totals shall be extremely troublesome to beat

• The lopsided stage podium totals and, because of this, the large time bonus benefit that comes with it, present us that, not less than within the close to future, the established superstars class shall be extraordinarily troublesome to unseat in the event that they take the beginning line match and wholesome since riders like Thomas and Hindley must be a degree above, both in poaching time by means of savvy techniques throughout transition levels or within the time trials, in the event that they wish to beat the extra well-rounded riders within the prime tier.
• Vingegaard’s being head-and-shoulders above the remainder on lengthy climbs and time trials have rendered it a moot level up to now, however his stage win/podium totals lagging behind Pogačar and Roglič indicators a possible weak point that might be exploited on the 2024 Tour.
• The one GC contender that seems able to difficult Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Roglič for stage podiums and time bonuses is Evenepoel, who has rapidly developed a capability to dash and contest quick uphill finishes.

Can anybody beat the highest two?

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Enroll right here for full entry. –