2024 Rider Tiers Half 2: Who’re the highest one-day contenders heading into the upcoming season? Spencer Martin breaks down the place every high Monument contender stands as we method the 2024 season.
– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Join right here for full entry. –
Grand Excursions and one-day Classics for Tadej Pogačar
As the beginning date for the 2024 season continues to march nearer, we are going to proceed to take inventory of who the game’s elite riders are in every main self-discipline (grand excursions, one-classics & stage successful) heading into 2024 to present us a clearer view of what to anticipate when these main occasions roll round.
Rating The High 2024 One-Day Contenders
To construct off final week’s tiering of the highest 2024 Grand Tour contenders, we’re separating the highest one-day Monument* contenders into 5 tiers this week. To delineate them into tiers, I’m taking into consideration 1) high three ends in World-Tour-level one-day races over the previous 4 seasons, with outcomes generated lately given extra emphasis, 2) their age, and, most significantly 3) their chance to generate outcomes (wins) in WorldTour-level one-day races (complete WordTour one-day calendar plus Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne) the 2024 season.
*’Monuments’ consult with a sequence of races that comprise the 5 most vital one-day races on the calendar. Learn extra right here.
Which Basic will we see the rainbow bands cross the end line first?
Why This Is Useful
As I outlined final week, the aim of this train is to try to objectively minimize via the noise and see who one of the best riders in every self-discipline are. That is particularly vital within the fashionable panorama since there’s an odd inversion the place the much less a rider produces, the extra media protection they obtain.
Possibly not so many Classics for Evenepoel in 2024?
The Standards
Whereas there’s a almost countless array of each established and rising one-day abilities, to qualify for the highest 4 tiers, a rider should have both gained a Monument, or World Championship street race, prior to now 4 seasons or landed on a Monument or World Championship podium inside the previous two years, in addition to having ends in current seasons that point out a capability to proceed successful sooner or later.
- This criterion is definitely not excellent, and sure to depart out proficient up-and-coming one-day riders, like Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, Magnus Sheffield, and Quinn Simmons, who could go on to win a number of main one-day races sooner or later. Nonetheless, only for the sake of maintaining the checklist manageable for this train, I’m principally filtering out such a rider who’s hanging across the high ten of main one-day races by solely together with riders who’ve scored main world one-day victories.
- I’ll get burned by this if one among these riders wins a Monument in 2024, however, usually, a rider often finishes inside the highest few locations earlier than successful at high one-day races (Remco Evenepoel’s 2019 San Sebastian victory is an instance of a current outlier).
Beneath, every rider is listed of their BTP designated tier together with the age they are going to be racing at in 2024:
The Tiers:
Tier 1:
Reserved for riders who’ve confirmed a capability to win the game’s greatest one-day races in opposition to the game’s greatest competitors lately and have the flexibility to take action in 2024. That is clearly an extremely elite group made up of riders who’ve the uncommon mixture of elite expertise and up to date real-world outcomes to again that expertise up.
Tadej Pogačar (25)
- 2023: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@Fleche Wallonne, 1st@IlLombardia, third@WorldChampionshipsRR, third@E3
- 2022: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Strade, 1st@GP Montreal
- 2021: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Liège
- 2020: third@Liège
- Totals: 5xMonument wins, 6xMonument Podiums, 1xWC podium, 4xother WT one-day wins
Lombardia’23 – Pogačar
Mathieu van der Poel (29)
- 2023: 1st@MilanoSanremo, 1st@ParisRoubaix, 1st@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@E3
- 2022: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Dwars, third@Sanremo
- 2021: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, third@Paris-Roubaix, third@E3
- 2020: 1st@Flanders
- Totals: 4xMonument wins, 8xMonument podium, 1xWC win, 4xotherWT podiums, 2xotherWT wins
Roubaix’23 – Van der Poel
Wout van Aert (29)
- 2023: third@Paris-Roubaix, third@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 1st@E3, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem
- 2022: 1st@Omloop, 1st@E3, 1st@Bretagne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@GPMontreal, 2nd@Bemer, third@Liège
- 2021: 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@GentWevelgem, 2nd@OlympicsRR, third@Sanremo
- 2020: 1st@Sanremo, 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
- Totals: 1xMonument win, 7xMonument podium, 2xWC podium, 10xotherWT podiums, 7xotherWT wins, , 1xOlympic podium
Flanders’23 – Van Aert
Remco Evenepoel (24)
- 2023: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian
- 2022: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian, 1xWorld Championship RR
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 2xMonument win, 1xWC win, 2xother WT wins
San Sebastian’23 – Evenepoel
Tier 2:
Riders who’ve each gained prior to now, and will win in 2024, main one-day Monuments, and different World Tour one-day races. These riders shall be thought of critical potential winners throughout the one-days in 2024 if they’re on the beginning checklist.
Jasper Philipsen (25)
- 2023: 1st@Brugge-De Panne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 1st@Eschborn Frankfurt, 2nd@Brugge-De Panne
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 2xother WT wins, 3xother WT podiums
Scheldeprijs’23 – Philipsen
Tom Pidcock (24)
- 2023: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Liege, third@Amstel
- 2022: third@Dwars
- 2021: 2nd@Amtstel, third@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 5xotherWT podiums
Strade Bianche’23 – Pidcock
Christophe Laporte (31)
- 2023: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, 1st@DwarsdoorVlaanderen, third@Omloop
- 2022: 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem, 2nd@E3
- 2021: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 2xother WT wins, 6xotherWT podiums, 1xWC podium
Wevelgem’23 – Laporte
Primož Roglič (34)
- 2023: third@IlLombardia
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 2nd@FlècheWallone
- 2020: 1st@Liège
- Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium
Emilia’23 – Roglič
Dylan van Baarle (31)
- 2023: 1st@Omloop
- 2022: 1st@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@Flanders
- 2021: 1st@Dwars, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xWC podium, 2xotherWT win
Omloop Het Nieuwsblad’23 – Van Baarle
Tier 3:
Riders who’re in a position to win, however not be the outright favourite, at an excellent variety of Monuments this coming season, however may very seemingly decide off a win at different main one-day races in 2024.
Mads Pedersen (28)
- 2023: third@Flanders, 1st@Bemer Basic
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
- 2020: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 3xotherWT win
Flanders’23 – Pedersen
Matej Mohorič (29)
- 2023: third@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
- 2022: 1st@MilanoSanremo
- 2021: 2nd@SanSebastian
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xotherWT podium
Kuurne’23 – Mohorič
Valentin Madouas (27)
- 2023: 1st@Bretagne Basic, 2nd@Strade
- 2022: third@Flanders
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums
Bretagne’23 – Madouas
Tier 4:
These riders have an out of doors likelihood of successful and an excellent likelihood at podium finishes at non-Monument one-day races in 2024. Because of the chaotic nature of one-day racing, if issues go their means, any of them may win even the largest races, however their various locations on the age/expertise curve, abilities, groups, and using types make them far much less prolific winners.
For instance, whereas Tiesj Benoot has confirmed he can win huge races every now and then, the finale has to unfold in a sure means as a result of his lack of a dash end, and whereas Arnaud De Lie has emerged as one of many strongest younger riders within the sport, and a prolific winner at lower-level races, he hasn’t been in a position to leverage that expertise into constant elite one-day outcomes.
Kasper Asgreen (29)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: third@Strade
- 2021: 1st@Flanders, 1st@E3
- 2020: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
- Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xmonument podium, 1xotherWTwins, 3xother WT podiums (together with Kuurne)
Flanders’23 – Asgreen
Andrea Bagioli (24)
- 2023: 2nd@IlLombardia
- 2022: third@GP Montréal
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Gran Piemonte’23 – Bagioli
Michael Matthews (32)
- 2023: third@GP Québec
- 2022: 2nd@GP Quebec, third@WorldChampionshipRR
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: 1st@Bretagne, third@MilanoSanremo
- Totals: 1xotherWT wins, 3xother WT podiums, 1xWC podium
Bretagne’23 – Matthews
Tiesj Benoot (29)
- 2023: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, third@Strade
- 2022: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen, third@San Sebastian, third@Amstel
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xother WT win, 5xother WT podiums
Fkèche Wallonne’23 – Bennot
Arnaud De Lie (21)
- 2023: 1st@GP Québec, 2nd@Omloop
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Whole: 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums
Qubec’23 – De Lie
Tier 5:
A set of the game’s high one-day abilities who both lack a Monument win within the final 4 seasons or, within the case of Jasper Stuyven and Julian Alaphilippe, have did not show a capability to persistently replicate race-winning performances on the greatest races in current seasons.
Biniam Girmay (23)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, third@GP Montreal
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xotherWT win, 2xotherWT podiums
Flanders’23 – Girmay
Ben Healy (23)
- 2023: 2nd@Amstel
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Liège’23 – Healy
Julian Alaphilippe (31)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 1st@LaFleche, 2nd@Liege, 2nd@Bretange
- 2020: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 2nd@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@Strade
- Totals: 2xWC wins, 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT wins, 3xotherWT podiums
Flanders’23 – Alaphilippe
Jasper Stuyven (31)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 1st@MilanoSanremo
- 2020: 1st@Omloop
- Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xotherWT win
Sanremo’23 – Stuyven
Marc Hirschi (25)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: 2nd@Liège, third@WorldChampionship RR, 1st@LaFlèche
- Totals: 1xmonument podium, 1xWorldChampionship podium, 1xother WT win
Coppa Sabatini’23 – Hirschi
Anthony Turgis (28)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: 2nd@MilanoSanremo
- 2021: 2nd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium
E3 Harelbeke – Turgis
Quinten Hermans (28)
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: 2nd@Liege, third@Bremer
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Antwerp’23 – Hermans
Key Takeaways
1) The flexibility to win the highest one-day races is turning into increasingly concentrated with the higher echelon of riders
- What stood out probably the most when constructing this checklist is the sheer rarity of riders who’re in a position to persistently win the game’s greatest one-day races.
- In truth, solely ten lively riders have gained a Monument within the final 4 seasons (out of 20 whole races), with simply three riders, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogačar, and Remco Evenepoel, accounting for over 50% of wins at these 20 races.
- Along with high wins clustering with a number of high riders, one other mind-bending development is how the lists of high grand tour riders and high one-day riders mix collectively.
- For instance, half of the Tier 1 riders have been additionally included within the two high tiers of the Grand Tour rider rankings, and three Grand Tour riders, Evenepoel, Pogačar, and Primož Roglič, landed within the high two tiers on one-day racers.
- Some may discover the development of some high riders often successful the game’s high races and having roughly the identical type throughout all the season, however this does intently adhere to logic and is doubtlessly even linked to the game being cleaner than prior to now.
- In nearly each high-level sport, the highest performers are one of the best performers throughout almost each competitors, and it tracks that this could be the identical in biking.
Pogačar and Evenepoel in Tier 1 of the Classics and Grand Tour riders
2) One-day dominance can also be being concentrated at a number of high groups
- Tier Staff Energy Rankings:
1) Visma: 1xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 1xTier 5
2) Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
3) Alpecin-Deceuninck: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 2, 1xTier 5
4) UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 5
5) Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
6) Ineos: 1xTier 2
7) Bora: 1xTier 2
8) Groupama-FDJ: 1xTier 3
9) Jayco: 1xTier 4
10) EF: 1xTier 5
11) Lotto: 1xTier 5
12) Intermarché: 1xTier 5
13) TotalEnergies: 1xTier 5 - Whereas their sweep of each 2023 grand tour made it obviously apparent that Jumbo-Visma (quickly to be Visma-Lease a Bike) is the game’s high grand tour workforce, with a complete of 4 tiered riders, together with a rider in Tier 1, two in Tier 2, their assortment of top-tier one-day Classics workforce can also be sport-leading.
- Soudal-QuickStep’s decline within the Northern Cobbled Classics has been effectively documented, however surprisingly, primarily as a result of presence of Remco Evenepoel, they’re nonetheless a formidable squad throughout the game’s high one-day races.
- Alpecin-Deceuninck could have beforehand been a top-heavy squad that revolved round Mathieu van der Poel, however the emergence of Jasper Philipsen as a bonafide one-day contender has given the workforce depth on the high finish that solely Jumbo-Visma can surpass.
- UAE could also be constructing a particularly deep-stage racing program, however relating to one-day races, they’re nonetheless closely depending on Tadej Pogačar.
- Regardless of a plethora of younger expertise and cash, Ineos solely has a single-tiered rider.
Jasper Philipsen now a bonafide one-day contender
3) Each side of recent skilled biking is formally a younger man’s recreation
- We’ve heard concerning the youth wave taking on the game for years, however nothing underlines this development like the truth that simply six out of the 24 (25%) whole riders who certified for the 2024 One-Day Tier rankings are beneath the age of thirty.
- Two veteran stars, Michał Kwiatkowski (33) and Alberto Bettiol (30), did not even qualify for 2024’s one-day tiers.
- Only a few years in the past, a rider wouldn’t have been thought of in a position to contest the largest one-day races till they’d years of expertise beneath their belt and had developed their bodily system to deal with 200+ kilometer races.
- Nonetheless, the fashionable period has made this knowledge, which till lately was nearly universally accepted till lately, seem almost utterly unfaithful.
Not for the old-men – Michał Kwiatkowski
– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Join right here for full entry. –
Like PEZ? Why not subscribe to our weekly publication to obtain updates and reminders on what’s cool in street biking?
