Better of the Remainder of the Tour: Polka Dot Insanity!

As we speak in Succinct Updates to Succinct Previews… bear in mind earlier than the Tour after I stated that somebody will go chasing after the KOM jersey aaaand… not a lot else? Nicely, now we have the blanks stuffed in now, and it’s just about the one most explosive, thrilling side of the Tour de France!

Backing up, I additionally predicted earlier than the Tour that the white and inexperienced jerseys have been sewn up, whereas the yellow was going to be a see-saw battle to the top. I used to be proper about white, and at greatest half-right by chance about inexperienced, the place that too is a performed deal, however reasonably than Wout Van Aert (dominating for years on finish) it’s really Jasper Philipsen who has the factors honors sewn up. And as to yellow, nicely, it was a enjoyable battle whereas it lasted. Additionally Jumbo have a 27-minute lead within the groups comp. Gotta suppose that’s a wrap too.

However the battle for the Tour’s most enjoyable jersey rages on! Possibly! Listed here are the related standings:

1. Giulio Ciccone, Lidl-Trek, 88 factors
2. Felix Gall, AG2R, 82
3. Jonas Vingegaard, Jumbo, 81
4. Neilson Powless, EF Schooling, 58
5. Everybody else, out of rivalry

Mainly you have got 4 theoretical combatants who, so as, are extremely motivated, questionably motivated, most likely detached, and could be extraordinarily motivated if there have been an opportunity. Let’s go in reverse order.

Photograph by Michael Steele/Getty Pictures

Powless: We all know how a lot he loved sporting the jersey for a lot of the first two weeks of the Tour, and you may guess something he’d like to have it again. Can he discover 31 factors? Sure! However it could depend on Ciccone being asleep on the wheel. There are three cat-2 climbs (5 factors to the winner), one cat 3 (2 factors) and two cat-1s (10 factors max), which places 37b factors on the market to anybody who can win each single joust alongside the best way. I’d guess my one remaining intact fibula that Powless will be part of the early break on Saturday, as a result of it could be malpractice to not rise up there and provides it a go. However he would want a bunch of no less than 6 riders, none of whom is Ciccone or Gall, to have an opportunity. Prediction: No bueno.

Vingegaard: Hmm… I feel he has to strive. For starters, he really is one of the best climber right here, and with no remaining concern over his primary goal, can he afford to simply stroll away from a prize that comes with a verify for €25,000? Tour winners are inclined to unfold money round to their helpers and this more money would get handed proper alongside, I’m positive. Additionally in 2022 he moved right into a slight lead for the KOM on the final mountains stage, although the circumstances have been fairly completely different and required him to go all out.

We are going to know his intentions midway up the Petit Ballon climb, the primary of the 2 remaining cat-1s. If at that time Gall and/or Ciccone are up the street and Jumbo isn’t chasing, then he can have been mathematically eradicated — until the opposite two have firm who steal the factors out from below them. Prediction: Controversial favourite to win however I’ll say no.

Photograph by Jean Catuffe/Getty Pictures

Gall: Inside the first 10km of the stage we must always know the Austrian’s intentions. If Ciccone assaults and Gall fails to mark him, then he’s both letting the jersey go and specializing in sustaining his eighth place total, or he’s enjoying a cagey sport to see if Ciccone can exhaust himself earlier than the 2 cat-1s the place the actual cash shall be made. This can be a fairly good technique for Gall, who appears like one of many highest climbers within the Tour, definitely above Ciccone’s stature — I really like Giulio however he’s extra of a puncheur than a excessive mountains man. Certainly his French crew would love him to be on the highest step Sunday, and seventh place is fairly nameless. So for me, the one query is whether or not he will get aggressive early or performs the ready sport. Prediction: My decide to win.

Ciccone: Do you know he gained the KOM comp on the Dauphine, and got here in third in two different such competitions on the Tirreno and Valenciana Excursions? He additionally picked up a factors jersey within the Vuelta a La Communitat Valenciana, so it appears like that is his factor now (he was third within the ‘22 Tour and second within the ‘22 Giro KOM comps too). The one query is whether or not he can end off the most important secondary jersey plot of his profession. And principally it should come all the way down to who has the legs, Ciccone or Gall? If Gall by no means comes out of the pack, then it’s as a result of he’s too worn out to chase down KOM factors and is pressured to trip for his high ten. If he feels good, nicely, Giulio goes to must really feel even higher. With a six level lead he can afford to complete second to Gall in each of the cat-1 sprints, and possibly he can have padded his lead earlier than then. But when he cracks on the Little Balloon, it’s most likely over. Prediction: Pipped on the publish.

I’m setting my alarm to go off early and see how this unfolds, as a result of it needs to be thrilling from the gun. Take pleasure in!