Will the sprinters once more dominate on the Tour de France on Tuesday’s quick end on the Nogaro motor racing circuit? Most likely.
Can anybody beat them with a late assault? Maybe.
US nationwide champion Quinn Simmons took on the sprinters in an analogous scenario on the Autódromo de Villicum through the Vuelta a San Juan in January and gained the stage with a smash and seize energy assault. However in fact the sprinters and their groups might be working arduous to maintain management of stage 4.
The 181.8km stage from Dax to Nogaro consists of only one fourth class climb and cuts throughout the flat roads of the Gers division of the Occitania area, on the plains that look as much as the Pyrenees. It is going to be scorching however most likely not windy.
The end may be very totally different to the roundabout-strewn roads and chicane end in Bayonne. The final 3.1km are on the Paul Armagnac circuit, used extra usually for motor racing than bike racing.
It can provide what the sprinters will describe as a ‘tremendous quick’ end. There’s little elevation on the circuit and the corners are quick, extensive, sweeping and parabolic.
There might be no want to the touch brakes within the closing kilometres, as a substitute large chainrings and an ideal high-power lead out might be very important.
The Nogaro motor racing circuit was final utilized in a race through the 2017 Route du Sud when EF Training-EasyPost’s Tom Scully gained from the breakaway, simply holding off Elia Viviani and Bryan Coquard because the sprinters nearly caught them.
That day maybe led to the 2023 Tour de France stage in Nogaro.
Jasper Philipsen gained the primary dash of the Tour in Bayonne on stage 3 due to an outstanding lead out from Jonas Rickaert after which Mathieu van der Poel, who dragged his teammate as much as the chicane end, dropping house off on the excellent level to dive to the ultimate nook on the entrance.
The run in on the Paul Armagnac circuit in Nogaro on stage 4 gives a distinction, as the ultimate 750 metres are lifeless straight and the seven curves on the 3.1km motor racing circuit are all quick and sweeping.
It fits a strong leadout, with maybe Soudal-Quickstep having the muscle to steer out Fabio Jakobsen, Jayco-AlUla to set-up Dylan Groenewegen or Alpecin-Deceuninck to do it once more for Philipsen.
The likes of Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal), or maybe Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan), may even have a late burst of pace of their legs in sight of the road simply as they did in Bayonne.
Ewan kicked from behind and moved up when the street was clear forward of him however the NTT Tour de France knowledge indicated that Cavendish was the quickest within the final kilometre, at one level hitting 73.3km/h as he sprinted to maneuver up. Is that sufficient pace for Cavendish to win his thirty fifth stage and higher the document he shares with Eddy Merckx?
Maybe it’s on the broader roads of the Paul Armagnac circuit.
The motor racing observe is 12 metres throughout however the race e-book says the end might be 9 metres extensive. The obstacles will maybe funnel in direction of the road however there’s nonetheless loads of street for Cavendish and different sprinters to come back off the wheels and fan throughout the street earlier than diving on the white line.
Quinn Simmons’ solo assault as inspiration
After all additionally it is attainable to beat the sprinters, particularly on motor racing circuits, the place there is no such thing as a visitors furnishings and few corners however loads of easy tarmac to make a daring late assault.
Victor Lafay of Cofidis confirmed on stage 2 that the quick finishers will be overwhelmed with the fitting assault and sufficient energy. Simmons delivered an analogous transfer on the Vuelta a San Juan, try the video of the stage above to see how he did it. It’s a thrilling finale and completely executed efficiency.
Simmons’ Vuelta a San Juan assault was impressed by an analogous transfer in 2021 by Zdeněk Štybar. His coach Steven De Jongh despatched him a video of Štybar’s profitable maneuver the night time earlier than the race to fire-up Simmons’ braveness to assault.
Maybe somebody has additionally watched the video of Simmons’ victory and located inspiration for stage 4 of the Tour de France.
Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Mikkel Bjerg (UAE Workforce Emirates), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) or Victor Campenaerts (Lotto Dstny) may very well be impressed. Maybe two of them may get away collectively. It might be a spectacular and thrilling finish to the stage, even when they had been caught and the sprinters took the glory.
Simmons is unlikely to have the liberty to attempt a transfer on this yr’s Tour de France. He’ll journey for Mads Pedersen and do the early chasing earlier than Alex Kirsch and Jasper Stuyven take over for Pedersen’s lead out. Another person, nonetheless, may very well be courageous sufficient to attempt their hand and tackle the sprinters.
“To beat the sprinters you want 900 watts for a minute or possibly extra,” Simmons warned.
“In our workforce I can do it and I’m positive Mads can do it too. Guys like Wout Van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel can most likely do much more watts. Nevertheless it’s one factor to do it in coaching and one other to do it on the finish of a Tour de France stage after preventing for place at 60km/h.
“It needs to be the fitting situation and the fitting second however possibly there’s an opportunity for somebody on Tuesday. Not each dash end within the Tour routinely needs to be for the sprinters. Individuals can rip up the script.”