VUELTA’23 Relaxation Day Wrap #1: So Far & How Issues Might Play Out From Right here?

Vuelta’23 Relaxation Day Spherical Up: Spencer Martin offers us his first relaxation day reflections, breaking down the place the GC contenders have gained/misplaced time to date throughout a wild Vuelta a España, and what it means for the rest of the race. Breaking down what we’ve discovered concerning the 2023 Vuelta a España GC contest to date and the way issues may play out from right here.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for full entry. –

Crashes and rain within the first Vuelta week

After an eventful opening 9 days of racing, it’s clear that the 2023 La Vuelta a España, at the least at this level, is much from the two-rider duel that has develop into de rigueur in trendy grand tour racing, and, as a substitute, is a wide-open seven-way battle for the general win. Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss, an American who is probably going one of the best pure climber on this planet, holds a considerable 2’22 lead over defending champion Remco Evenepoel, with 5 different main pre-race favorites (Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard, Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, and João Almeida) all crammed inside a 33-second window behind.

The highest guys are on the entrance

Contemplating time gaps have been created between key GC riders on seven out of the opening 9 phases, these slim gaps spotlight simply how aggressive the racing has been and the way shut the bodily degree is between the highest GC contenders.

Present GC High Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Marc Soler (UAE) +43
3) Lenny Martinez (FDJ) +1’02
4) Remco Evenepoel (QuickStep) +2’22
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +2’29
6) Primož Roglič +2’29
7) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +2’33
8) Enric Mas (Movistar) +2’33
9) Juan Ayuso +2’43
10) João Almeida +2’55

Sepp Kuss in pink

The place Time Has Been Gained/Misplaced So Far

To discern how the GC race will play out within the coming weeks, let’s take a look at the place every of The Massive Six took or misplaced time to date. I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three have gained/misplaced time relative to one another to date and the way a lot time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

Stage 1 Crew Time Trial
Mas +0
Evenepoel -6
Roglič -32
Vingegaard -32
Ayuso -37
Almeida -37

Stage 3 Summit End
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -5
Ayuso -7
Roglič -11
Mas -11
Almeida -11

Stage 5 Dash End
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -6
Ayuso -6
Roglič -6
Mas -6
Almeida -6

Stage 6 Summit End
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -7
Almeida -14
Mas -24
Evenepoel -32

Stage 7 Dash End
Vingegaard +0
Evenepoel -2
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Mas -2
Almeida -2

Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill End)
Roglič +0
Evenepoel -4
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Mas -12
Almeida -12

Stage 9 Summit End
Almeida +0
Roglič -5
Evenepoel -5
Ayuso -5
Vingegaard -5
Mas -5

Roglič on the lookout for seconds

Course Sort The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced Relative to Evenepoel

When wanting on the course varieties the place the opposite main GC riders (riders excessive up within the GC who didn’t take time by way of the stage 6 breakaway) have gained/misplaced time relative to Remco Evenepoel, we are able to see that regardless of successful the opening summit end on stage 3, Evenepoel’s lead has been virtually completely constructed within the opening crew time trial and time bonuses, whereas he has given up vital time by the early mountain phases on each different main contender (not typically signal). Regardless that these losses have been primarily remoted to a single stage (Stage 6), the lengthy closing climb on that day greatest represented what he’ll face by the remainder of the Vuelta mountain phases.

Crew Time Trials
Mas +6 (gained)
Roglič -26 (misplaced)
Vingegaard -26 (misplaced)
Ayuso -31 (misplaced)
Almeida -31 (misplaced)

Mountain Phases
Roglič +31 (gained)
Vingegaard +29 (gained)
Ayuso +24 (gained)
Almeida +20 (gained)
Mas +5 (gained)

• Summit Finishes
  Roglič +31 (gained)
  Vingegaard +31 (gained)
  Ayuso +24 (gained)
  Almeida +22 (gained)
  Mas +7 (gained)

Time Bonuses
Roglič -12 (misplaced)
Vingegaard -14 (misplaced)
Ayuso -14 (misplaced)
Mas -22 (misplaced)
Almeida -22 (misplaced)

Can Evenepoel recapture the pink jersey

Key Takeaways

1) Sepp Kuss main the race highlights a significant concern for, and a significant weak point with, Remco Evenepoel’s Soudal-QuickStep crew

• Whereas he wasn’t included within the calculations above resulting from taking practically all of his time on a single stage (stage 6), however Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss sitting 2’22 in entrance of Remco Evenepoel is actually a thorn within the facet of the QuickStep, Movistar, and UAE groups.
• The time deficit between Kuss and the opposite contenders is actually critical, and Kuss will probably stay within the race lead after tomorrow’s time trial, however I believe Evenepoel, Ayuso, Roglič, and Vingegaard will make up sufficient time to finally overtake him (they may realistically nail again 1’40-2’00 over the 26-kilometer course), the truth that he, and Marc Soler, have been allowed within the breakaway within the first place highlights the weak point of the QuickStep crew and foreshadows points Evenepoel may have when the race goes into the excessive Pyrenees on phases 13 and 14.
• For instance, what occurs if Kuss, and even Vingegaard, goes clear on the HC climbs early on both of these phases? QuickStep has already signaled they don’t have the energy or want to chase these strikes down.
• And even when they will preserve Kuss and Vingegaard out of the breakaway, what occurs when Evenepoel is remoted within the valley main into the ultimate climb on stage 14, and Jumbo begins sending Roglič, Vingegaard, and Kuss up the street, as they did on stage 11 of the 2022 Tour de France?

Evenepoel does appear calmer after his issues within the first days

2) Not like final 12 months, when Remco Evenepoel constructed up a big early lead, the time gaps to date between the principle GC contenders are shockingly slim

• Whereas he’ll probably take time again within the stage 10 time trial, Evenepoel’s present seven-second hole over Roglič pales compared to the hole of 1’53 he held over Roglič heading into the primary relaxation day eventually 12 months’s Vuelta (which ballooned to 2’41 after stage 10).
• Contemplating this 2’41 hole was shrinking quickly within the third week earlier than Roglič crashed out of the race, and that he has misplaced 19 seconds to Roglič within the individually contested phases at this Vuelta (each stage because the stage 1 TTT), and Evenepoel’s place within the GC begins to look lower than perfect.
• In stark distinction to final 12 months, if we filter out the riders who took time on the Stage 6 breakaway, we are able to see these six pre-race favorites are all inside simply 33 seconds of each other.
• Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +0
  Primož Roglič +7
  Jonas Vingegaard +11
  Enric Mas +11
  Juan Ayuso +21
  João Almeida +33
• And, if we filter out the opening crew time trial (the place Jumbo was delayed by a flat tire) in an effort to get a really feel for the way riders are evaluating in head-to-head competitors, Roglič has been the strongest, whereas Juan Ayuso has been second, Vingegaard third and Evenepoel is 19-seconds down.
• Primož Roglič +0
  Juan Ayuso +9
  Jonas Vingegaard +11
  Remco Evenepoel +19
  João Almeida +21
  Enric Mas +36
• In my thoughts, these standings are one of the best choose of uncooked energy to date at this Vuelta.

Roglič nonetheless the highest favourite?

3) Primož Roglič ought to presently be thought of the favourite to win this race

• Contemplating Roglič has been in a position to open gaps on the others regardless of the comparatively muted racing summit finishes whereas additionally stopping Evenepoel from opening his patented early time buffer signifies that the three-time champion is in an especially robust place, particularly since he has been the strongest climber at this race and there are two huge mountain phases (13 & 14) arising on the finish of the week.
• Whereas many viewers and pundits would level to Vingegaard and Evenepoel as Roglič’s important challengers, the truth that they’ve struggled to maintain tempo with Roglič on the kind of lengthy, sustained climbs that may begin to seem at a larger interval later on this race, makes me skeptical that they are going to be his greatest rivals by the tip of the race.
• As an alternative, I might level to 20-year-old Juan Ayuso, who has ridden an extremely good, and low-key, race and has come the closest to matching Roglič up till this level. Along with being one of many strongest climbers at this race, he’s a world-class time trialist who will probably take time on Roglič on Stage 10.

Will Evenepoel be in pink after the TT on Monday?

Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10 map and profile

Tomorrow’s 26-kilometer course time trial is likely to be comparatively brief, however it would play a massively vital position within the closing total standings.

• For instance, within the 30-kilometer-long Stage 10 time trial within the 2022 Vuelta, the closest rider to Evenepoel was Roglič, who completed 48 seconds again (a 1.55 seconds per kilometer loss), with the following GC contender being Miguel Ángel López ( proxy for Kuss) at 1’47 again (3.45 second per km loss).
• Whereas this can be a totally different 12 months and a distinct race, don’t be stunned to see surprisingly giant time gaps between the Massive Six favorites (Evenepoel, Roglic, Vingegaard, Mas, Ayuso, Almeida).
• The 2 greatest issues to observe will probably be how Kuss manages his losses and the way a lot time Evenepoel can tackle the Jumbo-Visma trio.
• If Evenepoel needs to win his second-consecutive Vuelta, he might want to unleash a trip as equally dominant as his efficiency in final 12 months’s Vuelta TT.
• Evenepoel ought to look to take 30-45 seconds on each Roglič and Vingegaard if he needs to carry them off within the second-week mountain phases.
• If Kuss can restrict his losses to beneath 90 seconds to the best-placed non-Jumbo member of The Massive Six, it drastically adjustments the calculus for the rest of the race and can drive Ayuso, Almeida, Evenepoel, and Mas to go on the offensive, even when that fashion of racing probably units up Roglič and Vingegaard assaults late on laborious mountain phases.

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# Spencer Martin is the writer of the cycling-analysis e-newsletter Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions huge image questions surrounding crew and rider efficiency. Enroll now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #