VUELTA’23 Relaxation Day Wrap #2: Who Shall be in Purple in Madrid?

Vuelta’23 Relaxation Day Spherical Up: Spencer Martin breaks down the place the GC contenders have gained/misplaced time to date throughout a wild Vuelta a España, and what it means for the race’s remaining week and who’s going to be on the highest step in Madrid on Sunday.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for full entry. –

All appears good for Sepp Kuss

After 15 days of racing, Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss has defied even the wildest expectations by holding his sizable GC lead, which he constructed up through a breakaway on Stage 6, and refusing to cede vital time within the set-piece levels the place everybody anticipated him to come back again to earth. With the remaining parcours that includes his specialty (climbs), he seems to be in an especially robust place to grow to be the primary American to win a Grand Tour since Chris Horner gained the 2013 Vuelta a España.

Chris Horner on l’Angliru in 2013

Nevertheless, much more spectacular than Kuss’ sudden lead is that his Jumbo-Visma group at present occupies all three podium spots. And, with their greatest GC rival, Remco Evenepoel, falling out of the GC after shedding greater than 27 minutes on Stage 13, and the closest non-Jumbo rider being 20-year-old Juan Ayuso in 4th at 2’37 again, there are not any apparent contenders to unseat them earlier than the end in Madrid on Sunday. Let’s check out how issues bought right here and what, if something, the remaining contenders can do to problem the Jumbo supersteam over the approaching levels.

Jumbo-Visma domination

Present GC High Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +1’37
3) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +1’44
4) Juan Ayuso (UAE) +2’37
5) Enric Mas (Movistar) +3’06
6) Marc Soler (UAE) +3’10
7) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +4’12
8) Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora) +5’02
9) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora) +5’30
10) João Almeida (UAE) +8’39

Time Modifications Between High 5 Since First Relaxation Day
Primož Roglič +52
Jonas Vingegaard +49
Juan Ayuso +6
Sepp Kuss +0
Enric Mas -33

Is Roglič ready within the wings?

The place Time Has Been Gained/Misplaced So Far

To discern how the GC race will play out within the coming week, let’s have a look at the place every of the highest 5 took or misplaced time to date. I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three have gained/misplaced time relative to one another and the way a lot time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

Stage 1 Workforce Time Trial
Mas +0
Roglič -32
Vingegaard -32
Kuss -32
Ayuso -37

Stage 3 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -2
Roglič -6
Mas -6
Kuss -18

Stage 6 Summit End
Kuss +0
Roglič -3’02
Vingegaard -3’02
Ayuso -3’09
Mas -3’26

Stage 7 Dash End
Vingegaard +0
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Mas -2
Kuss -2

Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill End)
Roglič +0
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Mas -12
Kuss -12

Stage 9 Summit End
Roglič +0
Ayuso +0
Vingegaard +0
Mas +0
Kuss -9

Stage 10 Particular person Time Trial
Roglič +0
Ayuso -42
Vingegaard -49
Kuss -1’00
Mas -1’17

Stage 12 Dash End
Roglič +0
Ayuso -4
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -4
Mas -4

Stage 13 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -38
Roglič -43
Ayuso -50
Mas -54

Can Ayuso do something

Course Sort The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced Relative to Kuss

After we open the hood and try the course sorts the place the highest 5 riders at this race have gained/misplaced time relative to race-leader Sepp Kuss, we are able to see that regardless of the belief that Kuss, who gained vital time with a breakaway on Stage 6, would ultimately fall again to earth and cede main time within the time trial and main mountain levels, the American hasn’t given up vital floor on both terrain.

Time Trials (Particular person + Workforce)
Roglič +53 (gained)
Mas +15 (gained)
Ayuso +13 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)

• Workforce Time Trials
  Mas +32 (gained)
  Roglič +0
  Vingegaard +0
  Ayuso -5 (misplaced)
• Particular person Time Trials
  Roglič +53 (gained)
  Ayuso +18 (gained)
  Vingegaard +11 (gained)
  Mas -17 (misplaced)

Mountain Levels
Vingegaard -2’01 (misplaced)
Roglič -2’32 (misplaced)
Ayuso -2’44 (misplaced)
Mas -3’05 (misplaced)

• Stage 6 (with out time bonuses)
  Roglič -2’52 (misplaced)
  Vingegaard -2’52 (misplaced)
  Ayuso -2’59 (misplaced)
  Mas -3’16 (misplaced)

Time Bonuses
Roglič +2 (gained)
Vingegaard +6 (gained)
Ayuso -6 (misplaced)
Mas -16 (misplaced)

Kuss rode a stunningly good TT

Key Takeaways

1) Sepp Kuss is in an extremely robust place to win this Vuelta resulting from errors made by groups which are now not within the GC battle

• When the 28-year-old climbing specialist took over three minutes again on Stage 6, it was typically assumed that A) resulting from by no means being nearer than 18’55 to successful a three-week race and B) using his third grand tour of the season, he would fade because the race progressed and fail to be an element within the remaining GC standings.
• However, judging by the truth that Kuss restricted his losses within the time trial and has taken time on his two greatest non-Jumbo GC rivals, Juan Ayuso and Enric Mas, on the mountain levels since then, the choice to let Kuss journey into the breakaway was an especially poor calculation from the Ineos, Movistar and QuickStep groups.
• An odd wrinkle right here is that whereas QuickStep created the Kuss Monster resulting from being accountable for controlling the race again on Stage 6 resulting from having Remco Evenepoel within the race lead, he’s now not their concern resulting from Evenepoel crashing out of the GC competitors resulting from shedding 27+ minutes on Stage 13.
• Which means UAE, who had a rider, Marc Soler, within the breakaway who by no means had a practical likelihood of hanging on within the hardest mountain levels, made an enormous miscalculation by assuming Evenepoel wouldn’t fall out of the GC (anybody paying shut consideration to his profession would have recognized there was an honest proportion likelihood that he wouldn’t be in GC rivalry within the remaining week) and taking part in the Soler In The Breakaway card and sitting again whereas Kuss rode clear.
• On reflection, UAE ought to in all probability have snuffed out that Kuss could possibly be a significant drawback for them within the third week, they must clear up the mess alone, and labored to maintain him from stepping into the transfer, and as soon as he was there, not assumed that Soler additionally being in it neutralized the risk to Ayuso.

Is it an excessive amount of for UAE Workforce Emirates (and the opposite groups) to beat Jumbo-Visma

2) Primož Roglič is the strongest rider at this Vuelta

• His teammate is likely to be within the race lead with a strong benefit, however the quiet story of this Vuelta is that Primož Roglič is the strongest rider at this race.
• Exterior of an unimaginable time trial efficiency, he was in a position to shut half a minute to his teammate Jonas Vingegaard inside the ultimate few hundred meters of Stage 13 whereas almost closing the hole to Kuss and dropping Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso within the course of.
• If we filter out the Stage 1 Workforce Time Trial and Stage 6 breakaway, Roglič has gained time on everybody within the race in head-to-head battles:
  Primož Roglič +0
  Jonas Vingegaard -7
  Juan Ayuso -55
  Sepp Kuss -1’25
  Enric Mas -2’01
• In fact, remaining standings aren’t tallied on head-to-head instances, however this can be a good choose of uncooked power to date at this Vuelta.

Jonas Vingegaard isn’t in his Tour type

3) Jonas Vingegaard performing as a ‘sweeper’ in third place will make any tried assault of the Jumbo fortress within the remaining week almost unattainable

• Contemplating Ayuso and Mas have each both stagnated or misplaced time to each Kuss and Roglič for the reason that final relaxation day (which isn’t a promising signal for a third-week comeback), the presence of the two-time Tour de France champion Jonas Vingegaard in third place total will function an enormous impediment.
• It’s because even when Ayuso and Mas can get right into a breakaway and/or drop each Kuss and Roglič, all Vingegaard has to do is mark their wheels (which is what he’s accomplished over the previous few levels) and sit of their draft all the way in which to the end line to win the general.
• This truth is extremely demotivating for Ayuso, Mas, and their groups because it all however eliminates any likelihood they’ve of catching out Jumbo on one of many quick, rolling levels remaining (aka raid levels), and means they must go all-in on dropping the Jumbo trio in a head-to-head climbing competitors on the absurdly steep slopes of the L’Angliru on Stage 17.

What’s going on with Remco Evenepoel?

4) We are not any nearer to realizing if Remco Evenepoel is a critical Tour de France 2024 contender

Coming into the race, we gave the impression to be on the verge of lastly witnessing Remco Evenepoel, who, at simply 23 years outdated, already has a number of World Titles, Monument wins, and a grand tour (2022 Vuelta) beneath his belt, go head-to-head towards among the sport’s greatest stage races.
• Exterior of thrilling racing, a part of the attraction of this was to see if Evenepoel may realistically problem Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard at subsequent 12 months’s Tour de France.
• However, after collapsing early on Stage 13, questions nonetheless stay about his bodily/psychological sturdiness and, most significantly, the tactical chops of his QuickStep administration group and their skill to map out a transparent, well-defined strategic plan for 3 weeks of racing as an alternative of viewing the race as 21 one-day races.
• Even his spectacular rides since Stage 13 haven’t answered these questions since they look like accomplished with out forethought and are merely an extension of the ‘let it fly’ technique the group and Evenepoel have beforehand adhered to.

What can we count on for Evenepoel subsequent?

Stage 16 Preview

Tuesday’s stage, resulting from being simply 120 kilometers lengthy alongside the rolling Cantabrian coast the day after a relaxation day, will probably produce quick, livid, unpredictable, and chaotic racing.

The problem of the day for breakaway riders might be that riders in a position to win on the robust 5km-long, 9% gradient remaining climb gained’t be suited to using clear on the quick, rolling terrain the place the breakaway must type.
• One other complication is anticipated excessive velocity and brief distance, which implies that the breakaway may take so lengthy to type that by the point it lastly will get clear, GC groups might be lining as much as place for the ultimate climb and will inadvertently reel them in.
• If UAE and/or Movistar wish to land on the general podium, they should begin taking time again quickly, and the comparatively brief, steep remaining climb is considered one of their greatest alternatives to aim to drop Kuss by using an explosive tempo that dislodges him early on the climb.
• Ayuso ending 10 seconds forward of Kuss, and getting the 10-second bonus for successful the stage, would get him inside shut sufficient to capitalize on a foul second for both Vingegaard, Roglič, or Kuss on Stage 17.
• Sadly, the presence of Roglič, who could be the favourite to win the stage if the GC group catches the breakaway, makes this extremely difficult since he may use the stage to extend his lead over Ayuso.

Will Sepp Kuss be on the ultimate podium in crimson?

# Spencer Martin is the creator of the cycling-analysis e-newsletter Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions massive image questions surrounding group and rider efficiency. Enroll now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #