VUELTA’23 Ultimate Wrap: Precisely The place/How Sepp Kuss Gained

Vuelta’23 Ultimate Spherical Up: After having just a few days to ponder Sepp Kuss’s unbelievable journey to get a extremely sudden general Vuelta a España victory (and develop into the primary American in a decade to win one in every of biking’s three grand excursions), Spencer Martin needed to pause to interrupt down how and the place he gained the race over his teammates/rivals Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, in addition to UAE’s Juan Ayuso, who completed in fourth place general, and try and predict how this win will have an effect on the way forward for the Jumbo-Visma workforce.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for full entry. –

Sepp Kuss wins on stage 6

At first look, the 29-year-old Sepp Kuss gained after taking time because of stepping into a large breakaway within the chaotic opening kilometers of Stage 6, earlier than taking the lead on Stage 8, and holding on for pricey life till they arrived in Madrid to complete the race. However, upon additional inspection, Kuss really outrode his non-Jumbo rivals, and proved himself to be a possible GC contender at future grand excursions.

The race might need allowed Jumbo-Visma, who saved the race attention-grabbing with their intra-team battle, which got here to a head on the finish of Stage 17 on the steep slopes of the l’Angliru, to focus on their dominance of the game with their sweep of each the Vuelta podium and each grand tour on the 2023 calendar, however it additionally left just a few main questions in regards to the workforce’s future. By the race’s finish, it was clear that their superior recruitment and improvement course of, which has left them with a number of choices to win grand excursions, is also their undoing because it was made clear to Primož Roglič, the workforce’s stoic heart of gravity and nonetheless one in every of their most essential UCI factors and win collectors, that he’ll possible have to depart the workforce within the low season if he needs to ever have one other probability to contest the Tour de France.

Roglič should depart Jumbo-Visma for a Tour victory probability

Beneath is a numbers-based breakdown of how the race, which I consider was by far the most effective and most enjoyable grand tour of the season, performed out and was gained. For a mirrored image on the emotional influence, I like to recommend testing Jonathan Kaplan’s RIDING WITH put up on this Vuelta.

Ultimate GC Prime Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +17
3) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +1’08
4) Juan Ayuso (UAE) +3’18
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +3’37
6) Enric Mas (Movistar) +4’14
7) Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora) +7’53
8) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora) +8’00
9) João Almeida (UAE) +10’08
10) Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain) +11’38

To assist us digest the tip end result, and try to know what precisely occurred and the place errors/profitable strikes had been made, I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three gained/misplaced time relative to one another and the way a lot time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

DSM had been fortunate with the circumstances on stage 1

The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced

Stage 1 Workforce Time Trial
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss +0
Ayuso -5

Stage 3 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -2
Roglič -6
Kuss -18

Stage 6 Summit End
Kuss +0
Roglič -3’02
Vingegaard -3’02
Ayuso -3’09

Stage 7 Dash End
Vingegaard +0
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Kuss -2

Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill End)
Roglič +0
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Kuss -12

Stage 9 Summit End
Roglič +0
Ayuso +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -9

Stage 10 Particular person Time Trial
Roglič +0
Ayuso -42
Vingegaard -49
Kuss -1’00

Stage 12 Dash End
Roglič +0
Ayuso -4
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -4

Stage 13 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -38
Roglič -43
Ayuso -50

Stage 16 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -1’11
Roglič -1’11
Kuss -1’15

Stage 17 Summit End
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -25
Ayuso -1’52

Stage 18 Summit End
Ayuso +0
Kuss +0
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -9

When the Prime 4 Gained/Misplaced Time Relative to Sepp Kuss:

Week 1 (Levels 1-9)
Roglič -2’29
Vingegaard -2’33
Ayuso -2’43

Week 2 (Levels 10-15)
Roglič +52
Vingegaard +49
Ayuso +6

Week 3 (Levels 16-21)
Vingegaard +1’27
Roglič +29
Ayuso -41 (-1’23 earlier than Kuss sat as much as have fun)

The above graphs and figures present us exactly what we’d anticipate; that Sepp Kuss took time on the remainder of the GC contenders, together with his teammates Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, together with his Stage 6 breakaway, earlier than Vingegaard and Roglič began reeling him in by means of the second and third weeks.

• However, opposite to the narrative, Kuss didn’t win this Vuelta solely as a result of breakaway and, even after sitting as much as have fun and shedding time on the previous couple of levels, really put time into each different non-Jumbo GC contender after Stage 6
• Ayuso: misplaced 35-seconds
  Mas: misplaced 1’32
  Landa: misplaced 1’47
• And, whereas Vingegaard might need seemed to be the stronger rider on Jumbo within the race, he took most of his time on Kuss when Kuss was both working for him (Stage 3) or when he wasn’t marked by the others or Kuss (Levels 13 & 16).
• When Kuss and Vingegaard had been really racing towards one another on Stage 10 & 17, Kuss restricted his losses to simply 36 seconds.

Kuss rode an excellent time trial

Course Sort The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced Relative to Kuss*

Time Trials (Particular person + Workforce)
Roglič +53 (gained)
Ayuso +13 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)

• Particular person Time Trials
  Roglič +53 (gained)
  Ayuso +18 (gained)
  Vingegaard +11 (gained)

Mountain Levels
Vingegaard -46 (misplaced)
Roglič -2’09 (misplaced)
Ayuso -4’03 (misplaced)

• With out the Stage 6 breakaway (with out time bonuses)
  Roglič +44 (gained)
  Vingegaard +2’06 (gained)
  Ayuso -1’04 (misplaced)

Time Bonuses
Vingegaard +18 (gained)
Roglič +8 (gained)
Ayuso -10 (misplaced)

*The time Juan Ayuso took again on Sepp Kuss whereas he sat as much as have fun on Levels 20 & 21 should not included

Kuss/Vingegaard Time Distinction Per Stage Sort
Particular person Time Trial (1): 11-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

Mountain Levels (6): 7.6-seconds per stage (Kuss)

• Stage 6 Breakaway (1): 172-seconds per stage (Kuss)

Time Bonus (6): 3-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

• As you’ll be able to see above, Kuss limiting his time losses to Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič within the Stage 10 particular person time trial was key to his win.

Key Takeaways

1) Jumbo-Visma was put in a tough PR scenario as soon as Remco Evenepoel imploded

• It was straightforward to criticize Jumbo-Visma’s messy techniques within the last week, when Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič almost ripped the chief’s jersey off their teammate’s again after they rode away from Sepp Kuss on l’Angliru on the finish of Stage 17.
• Nonetheless, whereas this undeniably appeared unhealthy, the workforce was caught in a no-win scenario as a result of sudden collapse of Remco Evenepoel and the dearth of any actual GC challengers. As soon as this occurred, the workforce was left with three choices, all of them with important downsides:
• Order Roglič and Vingegaard to assist Kuss by means of your entire third week:
• Sepp Kuss, Jumbo’s loyal domestique, was a storybook winner for the workforce, but when they allowed him to journey uncontested for your entire third week, they might danger alienating their two greatest GC stars (Roglič and Vingegaard).
• Primož Roglič, who at present ranks second on the workforce in 2023 win rankings with 14 victories (he had gained each race he entered in 2023 earlier than the Vuelta), is likely one of the workforce’s most essential riders now and within the close to future.
• He had constructed his season round profitable the Vuelta, and would have actually felt cheated if the workforce had ordered him to sit down again and permit Sepp Kuss to journey uncontested for your entire third week (contemplating that Kuss and Vingegaard had been each complicated late additions to the beginning checklist, he possible does nonetheless really feel a bit cheated) and sure would have pushed for a transfer away from the workforce within the low season.
• And, for Jonas Vingegaard, profitable the Vuelta wouldn’t have been insignificant since he’s at present making an attempt to construct up a top-tier palmares, and he might not have loved being ordered to move up the prospect.
• Permit the three riders to duke it out till Stage 21 and let the strongest rider win:
• This possible would have left Roglič and Vingegaard the happiest however would even have made Vingegaard, who had essentially the most to achieve from a Kuss collapse and Roglič’s aggressive racing, appear to be a grasping jerk who ‘stole’ a life-changing victory from a key domestique.
• And, even when Vingegaard determined to not depart Kuss and let Roglič chase the victory himself, he risked ceding a key race to one in every of his greatest rivals for the 2024 Tour de France and doubtlessly make his Jumbo workforce suppose Roglič was the higher shot to guide the workforce.
• The exterior optics of this technique are all the time unbelievably unhealthy, and would have risked turning almost each biking fan exterior of Denmark and Slovenia towards them.
• Race in a mix of the above two choices by protecting the racing ‘reside’ by means of the toughest climb of the race on Stage 17 and falling in line behind whoever is the chief:
• This mixture possibility, which they ultimately picked, created unideal optics and opened them as much as immense criticism
• However, by permitting Roglič to proceed to race aggressively by means of Stage 17, they maybe appeased him sufficient to maintain him on the squad in 2024, whereas additionally delivering the win to Kuss, and gathering the publicity and goodwill that comes together with profitable a grand excursions with an underdog rider, in addition to capping off their 2023 grand tour sweep with three totally different riders.
• Even after touchdown the aircraft with a Kuss victory and a reasonably cohesive podium sweep, it will likely be tough to maintain this workforce intact within the coming season.
• And, even when they do full that process, it will likely be almost not possible to maintain everybody pleased with the restricted management choices their embarrassment of riches creates.

2) Sepp Kuss continued to take time on GC stars after his Stage 6 breakaway and will proceed to problem for grand tour wins sooner or later

• As a result of circumstances of his win, which included getting a large time cushion with to a breakaway on Stage 6, many will assume that Sepp Kuss was merely gifted this Vuelta and that he gained’t be a menace for victory in future grand excursions.
• Nonetheless, this may be overlooking the truth that whereas he misplaced time to his teammates Roglič and Vingegaard after Stage 6, even when he took the leaders’ jersey on Stage 8, he took time on each different GC contender, a few of them being extremely highly-touted GC contenders like Juan Ayuso, Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas.
• And, though Roglič and Vingegaard took time on him, most of it was completed by means of assaults the place Kuss sat within the group and marked his different GC rivals whereas Vingegaard rode considerably uncontested up the highway (Levels 13 & 16).
• And, within the Stage 10 time trial, Kuss held his personal towards Roglič, Vingegaard, and Ayuso, all world-class riders towards the clock, which performed a major function in his victory.
• Some would possibly debate if Kuss has the ‘winner’s mentality’ and might deal with the stress of sole management, however, from a bodily perspective, this Vuelta confirmed that he actually has what it takes to go up towards, and beat, a number of the strongest GC contenders.

3) Enric Mas & Workforce UAE had been the large winners of the extremely publicized Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle

• A number of the massive winners of the Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle sucking up all of the press oxygen distracting from their races had been Movistar’s Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso’s UAE workforce.
Mas, who has been thought-about a possible grand tour-winning rider since ending second on the 2018 Vuelta, fully flopped at this race.
• After an amazing opening workforce time trial, he went on to cede time to Kuss, Vingegaard, Roglič, and Ayuso on almost each stage all through the remainder of the race. And, not solely did he lose time, however he continued to journey in a frustratingly conservative method designed to restrict losses however by no means really take time on anybody.
• Mixed with the truth that he has by no means gained a European World Tour-level stage race, this Vuelta uncovered the 28-year-old as merely not on the required degree wanted to guide a prime workforce at a contemporary grand tour.
• For comparability, his 5 profession Grand Tour top-five finishes monitor equally with Wilco Kelderman’s, a domestique on Jumbo, rely of three.

• Workforce UAE rode so poorly as a workforce that it raises severe questions on their skill to ship Pogačar one other Tour de France win
• Whereas the 20-year-old Juan Ayuso put in a stable efficiency to complete in 4th place general, this Vuelta, which noticed the UAE workforce race with none clear plan, and, at occasions, even towards their very own GC chief.
• This confirms that no one is up within the sales space calling the pictures at UAE and basically ended any hope that they might ever be capable to create and execute a well-defined and intelligent technique for Tadej Pogačar to tackle Jonas Vingegaard on the Tour de France.

4) Even essentially the most spectacular younger stars must proceed to enhance in the event that they wish to keep away from turning into veteran also-rans

• As anticipated, a gifted younger Belgian completed inside the highest ten of this Vuelta. Nonetheless, as a substitute of defending champion Remco Evenepoel, it was 20-year-old Cian Uijtdebroeks.
• One other 20-year-old, Juan Ayuso, put in a powerful journey to complete 4th place general.
• A 23-year-old Remco Evenepoel gained three levels and completed on the stage podium six occasions.
• These are unbelievable outcomes; nevertheless, upon nearer inspection, a troubling pattern emerges: Ayuso and Evenepoel regressed from their performances from the 2022 Vuelta.
• Evenepoel, who gained the general in 2022, suffered a significant, unexplained collapse on Stage 13 that ended any hopes of defending his title.
• The huge time loss meant that in 4 profession grand tour begins, Evenepoel solely has a single general top-ten end.
• It’s straightforward to wave off this as a foul day, however the uncomfortable truth is that riders who get right into a behavior of struggling sudden unhealthy days in grand excursions typically have a tough time ever persistently stringing collectively 21 consecutive days of racing with out struggling a single unhealthy day that prices them important time.
• Whereas Ayuso needs to be applauded for being the primary non-Jumbo rider and ending 4th place general at simply 20 years outdated, it’s plain that he appeared to lack the identical sparkle he had within the 2022 version of this race.
• He misplaced time to each Jumbo-Visma rider in each the mountains and time bonuses, solely gained 18 seconds on Kuss within the time trial, and would have misplaced to Kuss even with out the time he gained on the Stage 6 breakaway.
• It’d appear to be nitpicking to criticize riders this younger, however you will need to bear in mind simply how important it’s for younger riders, even ones this good, to proceed to enhance.
• If Uijtdebroeks and Ayuso stall out of their improvement, in just a few seasons, they are going to go from highly-touted future superstars to considerably forgotten also-ran GC contenders like Mikel Landa and Enric Mas (who’re superb and able to GC podiums however aren’t thought-about superstars).

Meet up with all of the 2023 Vuelta a España levels with photographs and video HERE.

# Spencer Martin is the writer of the cycling-analysis e-newsletter Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions massive image questions surrounding workforce and rider efficiency. Enroll now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #